Earlier crop flowering caused by global warming alleviated by irrigation

Abstract Enabling crop flowering within an optimal calendar window minimises long-term risk of abiotic stress exposure, improving prospects for attaining potential yield. Here, we define the period (OFP) as time in which frost, water and heat are collectively minimised. Using internationally-renowned farming systems model Agricultural Systems Production sIMulator, characterised combined effects climate change extreme climatic events on OFPs barley, durum wheat, canola, chickpeas, fababean maize from 1910 to 2021. We generate response surfaces irrigated dryland conditions using a range representative sowing times early late maturity genotypes. Global warming truncated lifecycles, shifting forward winter crops by 2–43 d environments, ?6–19 environments with irrigation. Alleviation irrigation delayed 3–25 or 11–30 crops, respectively, raising average yields 44%. Even so, was unable completely negate yield penalty caused crisis; peak respectively declined 24% 13% rainfed over 111 years simulation duration. conclude two important insights: (a) use broadens OFPs, providing greater flexibility likelihood realising compared (b), most preferable durations summer maximise early-sown long-season (late) later-sown short-season (early) types, respectively.